Lean Hogs

Near Term (Basis June): Bearish

Thursday’s early try at a rally and then new low trading levels will keep the daily June lean hog futures well defined in a strengthening trend lower bias. We still have a measured swing count based on the channel breakout to the downside at 65.50 cents as a place to reach for. The open interest has started to show modest increases as a sign that the large spec trader group might now be finished with its need to liquidate a bad long position and it is instead working on building a new short. It can be a reason for the contrarian part of the market to start thinking about the next spec trap in the game…force out the Johnny-come-lately new shorts, but in our mind it is still a little premature to think about this or at least to start trading for it. Let’s get the COT data to show the large spec as a net-short, the downside objective still 2.00-3.00 cents away from here, and the ADX closer to the mid-to-high 30 readings and then it might look more appropriate to talk like a contrarian bottom-picker. 

Long Term: Bearish

Our long-term technical outlook is bearish. Major resistance is at 71.27 cents, while support is 65.87 and then 61.87 cents. 2017-04-20 16_40_49-042017_SF_Daily_Commentary_Lean    Hog [Read-Only] - Microsoft Word2017-04-20 16_40_42-042017_SF_Daily_Commentary_Lean    Hog [Read-Only] - Microsoft Word

DISCLAIMER : Trading commodity futures and options products present a high degree of risk and losses in excess of your initial investment may occur. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please contact your account representative with any concerns or questions.


© Copyright   . Straits Financial Group.
All rights reserved.
Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Security Policy
Important Trading Information